In part 1 we compared the two clubs’ national finishes. This time we get in more details to ask a different question: once you are on the top team, do you stay on it?
Why we look at 17U
College recruiting in boys volleyball runs through 17U — the junior year, when coaches fill their recruiting classes and watch nationals most closely. The 17U top team is the roster that gets seen, so that is where we compared the clubs, and then we look into the details.
17U results: Bay to Bay is better
The first plot puts both clubs’ 17U national finishes on one chart, 2021–2026 — USAV in 2021, AAU after that. The lower, the better the finish (anything worse than 20th sits at 20, with the real place in brackets). Bay to Bay’s line owns the top of the chart: 3rd in 2021, a national title in 2024, 2nd in 2026, and an average AAU finish of about 9th. MVVC’s line is steadier but never reaches the top — its best is 2nd, in 2025, and its average finish is about 14th. At the age group college coaches care about most, Bay is better.
Retention: a good ranking protects your spot
The second plot is a scatter. Each dot is one team-season: x axis is that team’s national finish, and y axis is the percentage of its players still on the -1/Red team, one age group up, the next year. Blue dots are Bay to Bay, red dots are MVVC. The dots slope down to the right — the worse the finish, the more of the team is gone the next year.
Teams that finished top 5 kept about 70% of their players; teams that finished 19th or worse kept about 45%. Split the chart at 12th place and a club difference appears: on teams that finished 12th or better, MVVC kept about 80% and Bay to Bay about 70% — a slightly safer seat at MVVC. Below 12th, both clubs kept only about 50%, which is roughly the starters. The lesson: do not be a bench player on a team ranked below 12th. When a team rebuilds, it starts with the bench.
On a 14U top team? Your odds of reaching 17U top team
A 14U top-team player forward three years and his odds of reaching the 17U top team are about 35% — about 45% if he starts at MVVC, about 25% at Bay to Bay. And almost everyone who makes it does so without switching clubs.
The bottom line
Bay to Bay has the higher 17U ceiling; MVVC has the slightly safer seat once your team is good. At both clubs the strategy is the same: play for a team that wins, and be one of the players it wins with.
Disclaimer: this analysis only represent each club’s top team — Bay to Bay -1 and MVVC Red — with published data with past nationals. This does not include Premier or Black teams, so a player who moved to a second team counts as “not retained” here even though he may still be playing at the club.
